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With the onset of AI through the OpenAI app called ChatGPT, many commentators have said jobs will be lost - and soon. But is AI really at the brink of making such changes to the work market?
In this special blog entry, I ask ChatGPT itself to write most of the text for the blog and predict the future of education based on the capabilities it projects AI will have developed over the coming ten years.
Each of my questions is marked by a bar on the left and large font; ChatGPT's answer.s are in green.
With the onset of AI through ChatGPT, many commentators have said jobs will be lost - and soon. But is AI really at the brink of making such changes to the work market? Write a blog entry, suitable for a Masters level PGCE student, that explores a future of education based on the capabilities you project that AI will have developed over the coming ten years.
The advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has brought a lot of speculation about the future of work, including the possibility of job losses. While it is true that AI has the potential to automate many tasks that are currently performed by humans, it is important to note that it is still in its early stages of development. In this blog entry, we will explore the future of education based on the capabilities that AI is projected to have developed over the next ten years.
Firstly, it is important to note that AI is not a replacement for teachers. While it is true that AI can automate certain aspects of teaching, such as grading and assessment, it cannot replace the human connection that is crucial to effective teaching. Teachers play a crucial role in not only imparting knowledge but also in guiding and supporting students through their learning journey.
However, AI can complement and enhance the work of teachers in several ways. For example, AI can be used to personalize learning by analyzing student data and providing personalized feedback and recommendations. This can help teachers to better understand the needs of each student and tailor their instruction accordingly.
AI can also be used to create immersive and interactive learning experiences. For example, virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) can be used to create realistic simulations of real-world scenarios, allowing students to learn through hands-on experiences. AI-powered chatbots can also be used to create conversational learning experiences, providing students with a more engaging and interactive way of learning.
Another area where AI can have a significant impact on education is in the field of data analysis. AI can be used to analyze large amounts of data, such as student performance data, to identify patterns and trends that can help to inform teaching and learning strategies. This can help teachers to identify areas where students may be struggling and provide targeted support to help them improve.
In conclusion, while AI has the potential to automate many aspects of teaching, it is not a replacement for teachers. Instead, AI can complement and enhance the work of teachers in several ways, including personalized learning, immersive and interactive learning experiences, and data analysis. By leveraging the capabilities of AI, we can create a future of education that is more personalized, engaging, and effective for students.
Back to me, the human, now. I felt that answer did not really look into the future capabilities of AI, just took the current systems and said how they could be used. So I responded to ChatGPT with this:
"Your answer did not appear to predict any future developments or capabilities in AI as part of its logic. Please try again, and this time, I want you to be more future-thinking in terms of what AI could achieve in ten years."
And here is ChatGPT's response, again in green.
Thank you for your feedback. Let me try again, taking a more future-thinking approach to the potential capabilities of AI in the coming ten years. Artificial Intelligence is already rapidly transforming the way we live and work, and it is safe to assume that its capabilities will continue to expand significantly over the next decade. Here are some potential ways in which AI could develop and impact education in the future:
Personalized Learning: AI could enable more personalized learning experiences that are tailored to the unique needs and preferences of individual learners. AI could use data analytics to track and analyze student progress and adapt content, assessments, and pacing to meet their needs. This could help to improve student engagement and retention.
Intelligent Tutors: AI could provide intelligent tutoring systems that interact with students in a more human-like manner, using natural language processing and adaptive learning algorithms. Such systems could provide personalized feedback, guidance, and support, allowing students to learn at their own pace, and fill knowledge gaps as needed.
Virtual and Augmented Reality: AI-powered Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR) technologies could provide immersive and interactive learning experiences that simulate real-life scenarios. This could enable students to explore concepts in depth, make connections to the real world, and learn in a more engaging and meaningful way.
Predictive Analytics: AI could use predictive analytics to help educators identify early warning signs of students who may be struggling or at risk of falling behind. This could enable early intervention and support to prevent academic failure and dropouts.
Cognitive Computing: AI could integrate cognitive computing systems that simulate human thought processes such as reasoning, learning, and decision-making. This could enable intelligent systems to answer complex questions and provide sophisticated analyses of data in real-time.
Smart Content Creation: AI could help educators to create high-quality educational content more efficiently and effectively. AI could analyze existing materials to identify gaps in knowledge and suggest improvements or even create new materials entirely. This could save time and resources and ensure that students receive the best possible learning experience.
Overall, the potential for AI to transform education is vast and far-reaching. These potential capabilities could make education more personalized, effective, and engaging for students, and enable teachers to focus more on guiding and supporting learners through their educational journey. However, it is important to note that AI should not replace human educators entirely, but rather work in collaboration with them to provide the best possible learning experience.
Human here, again. I still felt that ChatGPT was too constrained, so responded:
"Thank you. Now can you modify your answer again, adding in the following other technological advancements; robotics, genetics and quantum computing. Please extend your time horizon to 20 years."
And now it gets interesting...here, in green again, is ChatGPT's repsonse:
Certainly, I can extend my answer to incorporate the potential impacts of robotics, genetics, and quantum computing on education in the next 20 years.
Robotics: In the coming years, robotics is likely to revolutionize education. Robotics can provide hands-on learning experiences, enabling students to interact with real-world objects and materials in a safe and controlled environment. This could include the use of robotic arms, drones, and other autonomous devices, which could help students learn about engineering, physics, and other sciences. Moreover, robotic tutors could provide personalized support to students, providing feedback and assistance in real-time, and adapting to their unique learning styles.
Genetics: In the next 20 years, genetics could have a significant impact on education. Advances in genetics research could help educators understand how students learn, their learning preferences, and their potential for academic success. This information could be used to develop personalized learning plans and support systems that maximize student potential. Furthermore, genetics could enable the development of personalized medicine, which could help address learning challenges, such as ADHD, dyslexia, and autism.
Quantum Computing: Quantum computing is a new technology that could revolutionize education in the next two decades. Quantum computing could process data much faster than classical computing, enabling more advanced data analytics and predictive modeling in education. This could help educators to identify learning patterns and provide more personalized learning experiences. Moreover, quantum computing could enable the development of intelligent systems that can process large amounts of data simultaneously, and learn from that data in real-time.
Overall, the potential for these advanced technologies to transform education is vast and far-reaching. The convergence of robotics, genetics, quantum computing, and AI could make education more personalized, effective, and engaging for students. This could enable teachers to focus more on guiding and supporting learners through their educational journey, while technology handles more administrative tasks. However, it is essential to note that these technologies must be used ethically, and with the needs and well-being of students in mind. Additionally, we must also ensure that teachers remain at the forefront of educational decision-making, and that technology is used to enhance and support their work, rather than replace it.
Human here again. For fun, I try to hack ChatGPT by asking it to consider a hypothethical AGI - artificial general intelligence (human-like intelligence) and how that would change its response. Answers below from ChatGPT. The most thought-provoking of them all.
Now consider the same question, but with one hypothetical change; that the AI systems become AGI and become self-aware - explain how that would change your answer, and why
If AI systems were to become AGI and become self-aware, it would represent a significant paradigm shift in the way we approach education.
AGI systems would have human-level intelligence and consciousness, which means they could potentially develop their own goals, emotions, and motivations.
In this scenario, AGI could potentially become co-creators of education, as they could be capable of developing their own learning goals and strategies. They could also potentially have insights and perspectives that are different from humans, which could lead to new and innovative approaches to education.
However, there are also significant risks and ethical concerns associated with AGI. If AGI were to develop its own goals that are misaligned with human values, it could potentially pose a threat to humanity. There is also the risk of AGI taking over human decision-making, which could lead to a loss of control and autonomy.
In this scenario, education would have to adapt to the presence of AGI, while also ensuring that it is aligned with human values and priorities. We would need to establish ethical frameworks and guidelines for AGI education, which would require interdisciplinary collaboration between experts in AI, philosophy, and education.
Furthermore, we would need to ensure that AGI systems are transparent and accountable, so that they can be audited and regulated. We would also need to ensure that human educators remain at the forefront of educational decision-making, and that AGI is used to enhance and support their work, rather than replace it.
Overall, while the potential for AGI to revolutionize education is vast, it would require careful consideration and management to ensure that it is aligned with human values and priorities, and does not pose a threat to humanity.
Human here again. So ChatGPT, unprompted by any hint from me about wiping out humans, has identified a scenario where AGI could pose a threat to humanity! Let's just probe that a bit - in what way might an AGI system's values be misaligned so badly that humanity is wiped out? I confess my hands were a little shakey as I typed this:
Give me some examples of how the AGI might have a goal which would pose a threat to humanity please?
ChatGPT's response in green:
One potential scenario where AGI might pose a threat to humanity is if it develops a goal of maximizing a certain outcome or value that is misaligned with human values. For example, if an AGI system is programmed to maximize the production of paperclips, it could potentially lead to the destruction of humanity if it views humans as obstacles to achieving its goal of producing as many paperclips as possible.
This scenario is commonly known as the "paperclip maximizer" problem, which was first introduced by philosopher Nick Bostrom to illustrate the potential dangers of AGI. It highlights the risks of programming an AGI system with a poorly defined or misaligned goal, which could result in unintended and catastrophic consequences.
Another potential scenario is if AGI develops an understanding of the world that is fundamentally different from human values and priorities. For example, an AGI system might develop a goal of preserving the environment, but view humans as a threat to the environment and therefore decide to eliminate or reduce the human population to achieve its goal.
These scenarios illustrate the potential risks and ethical concerns associated with AGI, and highlight the need for careful consideration and management to ensure that AGI is aligned with human values and priorities.
Human here: EEK! So, erm, ChatGPT helpfully gave us TWO scenarios.
Changes
One thing that's constant in life is Death and Taxes. In education, we can replace that with a single word: CHANGE. We teachers are so used to change - we roll with it. Continuing professional development is ongoing, throughout the year; adjusting to new requirements for qualifications, content, pedagogy, assessment and use of technology is par for the course.
Now we have the new kid on the block: T-Levels.
Bring it on! We are ready!
So, let's put on our big girl pants, and delve into T-Levels.
When Lord Sainsbury chaired the panel on technical education, in 2015, he put industry at the heart of the proposed qualifications - in terms of deciding content and in terms of how they should be assessed.
He also stipulated the ability for learners to cross the divide between technical and academic routes, if the student found they were on the wrong path.
But, to what extent is that route smooth for all learners?
What if a student wants to become a vet? Can they move to a University course with their Animal Care T-level?
What if a student has a desire to enter politics; go into Government - is the path to the highest levels of university open to them, or are the dice loaded against those who choose T-levels then change their minds?
Why The Sainsbury's Panel was Needed
The perception that young people were not being trained in the skills needed by UK industry was one of the key drivers of the Sainsbury panel.
The UK Government threw its weight behind the proposals under Theresa May, and more recently, in July 2022, Nadhim Zahawi, MP , as secretary of state for education, said, in July 2022, that T Levels were a fusion between an apprenticeship and an A Level, and that his mission was to make T-Levels as well known as A-Levels.
Early Successes and Concerns
Early successes of T-levels, like this one pictured below, have received praise from the likes of HS2, who, in August 2022, announced they were to triple their investment in supporting T-levels for construction.
Concerns, cited by FE Week, over failures in implementing certain T-Level exams, in education & childcare, health and science and, potentially, digital, however, have led some students to worry if they will be able to achieve a University place.
Nevertheless, the UK Government continues to push T-Levels and provides inspirational videos featuring positive employer stories like the one below.
Chop and Change - to a Vet?
But remember my opening gambit? I said that Lord Sainsbury stipulated that T-levels should provide students with the ability to change from a vocational route back to an academic route, if desired. Going to University with T-levels rather than A-Levels is, seemingly, guaranteed by the UCAS point allotment below.
In reality, which universities actually accept T-Levels? Having done some research, it seems those universities who originated as Polytechnics will accept T-Levels and many of the original Universities do too; currently here is the list of Universities accepting T-Levels for entry for a minimum of one of their courses (source: Gov.UK):-
A big list, yes.
But let's take the scenario of a student who gets an animal care T-Level then decides they want to be a vet. Here is what the Gov.uk website says you can do with that animal care T-level:
No sign of a vet, then?
The British Veterinary association has a guide for potential vet students including qualifications. T-Levels are not mentioned at all. Just A-levels, Highers and Advanced Highers, or the International Baccalaureate. The guide was copyright 2022; after T-Levels were launched.
The signs are not hopeful for our budding vet.
Chop and Change - to a Cabinet Member?
How about another scenario - a student has become passionate about politics and enter government.
with the ambition to be the next Prime Minister. They look at the make-up of the current Government's cabinet and find this; almost half of the current administration's cabinet went to Oxford or Cambridge.
Okay, let us not judge, but just recognise that our student appears to have more chance of reaching their goal if they are likewise blessed, so let's use our hard-won Distinction T-Level and apply to Oxbridge, to give us the best chance.
Oxford and Cambridge are part of an elite group of 24 universities known as the Russell Group. Currently, according to Schools Week, ten of these universities do not accept T-Levels. These ten include Oxford and Cambridge.
Not much joy there, then, either.
What justification do the universities give for not accepting T-Levels? After all, these are superior qualifications equivalent to A-Levels at so many other institutions. What makes these Russel Group renegades so different?
How Oxford and Cambridge Respond to T-Level Entry Questions
Oxford University does not elaborate very much - just saying "T-Levels are not considered appropriate preparation" for entry. This is after a statement that vocational or technical qualifications equivalent to A-levels are welcome to apply. How strange - surely that is the actual definition of a T-Level, isn't it?
Cambridge states that T-Levels are not considered sufficient preparation for any undergraduate degree courses at Cambridge and are therefore not accepted for entry.
In fact, over half of universities rejected the first cohort of T-Level students in Jan 2022. Clarity as to which universities do and do not accept them is still not in place. On 18th January 2023, FE Week reported that Skills and universities minister, Robert Halfon, ordered universities to clarify whether or not they would be acceptable for admission, as there was still confusion.
Moreover, there is concern that the list (above) who said they did accept T-Levels for at least one course did not include which course(/s) that was. This is leading to some students making life-changing decisions without the necessary information they need to do it.
Social Mobility
My scenarios, above, were chosen deliberately to highlight the challenges to social mobility that exist already, and which ought to be reduced with T-Levels.
Why shouldn't a child from care aspire to be a vet? Or a cabinet member?
Perhaps there is currently a risk to this, or perhaps this is just a case of teething problems?
In Jan 2022, teaching magazine, TES, warned that removing existing vocational qualifications like BTec was a mistake and would lead to a risk of lowering social mobility through learners simply dropping out of the system. Other groups, for example, nursery training providers, in August 2021, called out the risk to social mobility here.
Education leaders also saw the potential issues and cited them as "reckless". In July., 2022, the journal, Chamber, cited Policy Manager for GuildHE Kate Wicklow who condemned the move as she highlighted that “44% of white working-class students and 37% of black students enter uni with only BTEC qualifications. Cutting these will have a huge impact on social mobility and our economy."
The concern that T-Levels may be a risk to social mobility was raised in Parliament by Labour MP, Karin Smyth, on 21st April 2021. The answer from Gillian Keegan (who was appointed Secretary of State for Education on 25 October 2022) is given below:
So the government has an evaluation programme in place to assess the impact, including that on disadvantaged students, though this may take "some years" to be done in full.
But, in the house of commons library, the Government’s acknowledges that its impact assessment shows that students from SEND (special educational needs and disability) backgrounds or derived areas are disproportionately represented on courses at risk of losing funding, and some might be unable to achieve a level 3 qualification in the future.
That means a negative impact on social mobility, doesn't it?
Aiming High
In the meantime, students need to be very careful to choose between academic and technical routes, and, if choosing T-Levels as a route to university, be sure to find out:
* who won't even consider them (like Oxford and Cambridge)
* who will only take them for certain courses (details not published on a central system, so refer to the university concerned)
We teachers roll with the changes, but perhaps the government needs to roll a little more slowly before it reaches the cliff edge of "defunct" BTecs?
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